Update; some news has made it into some media that the Eunha-3 is going to come nowhere near Japan and it seems the press is gradually catching up to the news that the rocket’s path is due south as we see it “consistent with a satellite launch.” Of course it’s good PR to use the launch to focus attention on the need for Japan to bolster its BMD, but it seems people are slowly waking up to some basic facts about the launch.

The latest spin is “crash fears” about the “propulsion stage.” Put on your tin helmets!

The Taepodon Trigger (by which I mean magnifying external events to trigger changes in Japan’s national security stance)  is now fully in effect, with politicians and the media not wasting the opportunity drum up and repackage a good story about Japan preparing to shoot down the DPRK’s Eunha-3 (Galaxy) rocket next month to launch the Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 if necessary.

The story, as repackaged from the Asahi in Time (Japan Threatens to Shoot Down NoKo Missile. Really) is a typical copying local reports “that Japanese Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka told Diet members Monday that “We will take the (necessary) procedures in the event of a contingency that threatens our country’s security,” and pointed out that Japan has Patriot PAC-3 and Aegis destroyers that could do the job. Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Forces began deploying Patriot batteries to Japan’s southern islands today.”

The article then goes on to copy the same old media rubric that I have to use in my media articles about the “Japanese” still being  “traumatized by a 1998 test in which nuclear-armed North Korea lobbed a ballistic missile directly over the home islands.”

“The incident prompted the Japanese to join the US in missile-defense R&D, and it remains a cornerstone of Japanese defense policy.”

This is lazy journalism, reinventing the past and not checking the facts and not knowing the basics about what is happening because:

1. The 1998 “missile test” was a space launch attempt and Japan and the U.S. were notified about it at least a month in advance and in fact an Aegis cruiser was put in the Sea of Japan to track the SLV’s flightpath

2. The original Taepodong 1 did not overfly or violate Japan’s territory.

3. Japan’s cooperation with MD did not directly result from this incident; in fact the IGS program was triggered.

Please see In Defense of Japan for more details and Taepodon Trigger #3: DPRK to attempt 3rd Satellite Shot- Third Time Lucky?

The SLV will fly over the Yellow Sea and not Japan. SM-3 is designed to intercept an IRBM in orbit. PAC-3 is not designed to shoot down IRBMs and even if the thing blew up on the way up, there is a vanishingly small chance of a hunk of metal landing on Naha. Could PAC-3 be of any use anyway? Perhaps a garbage-can chunk of debris containing a basket ball sized satellite might conceivably drop somewhere over the Yellow Sea somewhere but what has that got to do with PAC-3?

Finally all of the press (including the Yomiuri’s Govt may send PAC-3s to Okinawa / SDF readying for launch of DPRK rocket) is ignoring the fact that the movement of PAC-3 is ALREADY PLANNED.

But don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story.  Please see my Defense News article from this week below.

The point is that these and other “scares” will be used to help bolster Japan’s defense posture, which is an excellent thing overall.