Japan Inches Toward Arms Exports

Here’s a scoop I got last year, made front page. In In Defense of Japan we largely built on the excellent work of Michael W. Chinworth, in particular Inside Japan’s Defense,which seems to have been a primer for the work of so many others.

Japan Inches Toward Arms Exports

Arms 2

Catching up again

After a long discussion with Ito san recently, this is a priority for Japan.  Here is an ancient story by instant media standards on some issues that are strategically important.

Cyber

JSP Catchup #6: Probe Uncovers 40-year Japanese Contractor Fraud

This story was NOT a surprise; the fuller story is at Japan Still Calculating Cost of Defense Firm’s Padded Bills, but ever since NEC Corp. in 1998 was found with its hands in the till, I have been wondering who would be fingered next, and when, and why when, and why.

I say this because when I chatted to people back in 1998, the practice of padding contracts with surplus labor costs was widespread in the space and defense sectors and this was commonly known. At the time the questions were Why NEC? And Why Now? Below my initial October story is NEC SCANDAL SHEDS LIGHT ON JAPANESE PROCUREMENTS, a more fruity web version of a story that I originally wrote for Space News back in the day.

The timing for the original NEC story was also interesting as NEC was strongly pushing for its version of what was to become Japan’s IGS spy satellite system that was provoked by the Teapodon Triggeran analysis that Saadia and I wrote about in In Defense of Japan (thank you Google Books!)

At the time NEC’s version of what was to become the IGS would have featured smaller satellites and cost less than Melco’s system. But with NEC suddenly out of the picture, Melco, with Ichiro Taniguchi at the helm, managed to personally lobby Japan’s Cabinet in the weeks after the Taepondon launch, and Japan’ got the IGS.

Here is a nice picture from Space Safety Magazine of Japan’s 1,200-Kilogram IGS 1B Satellite re-entered Earth’s Atmosphere on Thursday, July 26, 2012 after spending nearly 9.5 years in space.  Another more detailed article about this can be found at Spaceflight.101.com.

Eventually, NEC’s small-bus and higher resolution system has  been re-emerging in the ASNARO system, which is now being pushed as an alternative and complementary system to the expensive and relatively lower performance IGS, and also as the linchpin of a satellite-based, pan-Asian disaster monitoring network that is now a major part of Japan’s emerging regional space diplomacy and security strategy.  At least the Vietnamese have bought into it, and while customers don’t seem to be forming a line yet, there is still a lot of hope out there.

Here is the initial story for Defense News:

NEC SCANDAL SHEDS LIGHT ON

JAPANESE PROCUREMENTS.

By Paul Kallender in Tokyo

When, in September 1998, an investigation into the Japanese Defense Agency (JDA) discovered that Japanese technology giant NEC Corp had systematically defrauded the taxpayer on 33 space contracts over the course of five years, it looked as though Japan’s obviously abused government procurement system was about to get a major overhaul.

The investigation began promisingly enough. On September 3, Tokyo prosecutors raided the JDA and arrested Kenichi Ueno, deputy head of the Procurement Office, and a clutch of executives from NEC subsidiary Toyo Communications.

This followed discoveries that not only had Toyo overcharged the JDA some $21m over dozens of equipment contracts, but that Ueno and others had conspired to prevent Toyo, NEC and other subsidiaries from repaying the money. NEC was raided the next day and by September 10, nine senior NEC and JDA executives were in jail.

It came to light that Ueno and others had lifted incriminating paperwork out of the Agency’s filing cabinets and put them into incinerators and even the homes of friends. NEC’s SuperTower headquarters was soon besieged by the Japanese phenomenon of ‘sound trucks,’ driven by right-wing extremists screaming abuse and demanding mass resignations.

But instead of resulting in the punishment of protagonists and the start of reforms, the scandal collapsed into a desultory cover-up. NEC’s initial response was to deny everything, with a bemused VP Masakatsu Miwa telling the media on September 10 that he did not expect top NEC executives to resign because of the scandal, going on to explain that he “wondered why” NEC officials were being implicated. Unfortunately for Miwa, on September 29, NEC’s overcharging was upscaled to $2.5bn, while, on the same day, a Parliamentary committee reported that the JDA had hired no less than 44 NEC executives in senior positions in just two years. By October 10, former NEC VP Hiroaki Shimayama and Takenori Yanase, VP of NEC’s Space Systems Division, had both been arrested.

Thieves charter

The National Space Development Agency (NASDA) launched an inquiry and on November 9, NEC admitted overcharging by at least $19m. Meanwhile on October 14, the JDA revealed that 225 of its officials had been hired by 20 suppliers in the past five years, shedding some dim light on a corner of Japan’s Amadudari (Descent from Heaven) career kickback system.

At the heart of the issue, according to NASDA’s former executive director Akira Kubozono, is the flawed government contract system which encourages corruption through a combination of legendary meanness and bureaucratic incompetence.

“There are two points about this affair,” he said. “One is that NEC is just a scapegoat. The second is that the governmental contract system is the cause of this scandal. When the defense contract revelations began, I thought it was only a matter of time before it spread into NEC’s space systems division as both defense and space procurement are conducted under similar systems.”

Under the Japanese government contract system, the co ntractor is obliged to repay any unused budget if the delivery price falls below the contract amount, and the contractor must also incur any costs if the project overshoots the agreed estimate — a thieves charter if ever there was one.

Furthermore NASDA, the Science and Technology Agency and the Ministry of Finance lack the technical expertise to evaluate bids and tend to just accept company estimates, says Kubozono. “The system needs to be reformed but I doubt this is possible as long as NASDA and the corporations are controlled by STA administrators (who also often retire to executive positions in NASDA) and not by engineers,” he says.

No mettle Kubozono, it seems, was right.

By November 12, the space scandal seemed to have been wrapped up, with NASDA saying it was satisfied that only NEC had abused the system. “The system has worked well for 30 years. We believe that a little devil whispered into NEC’s ear. We do not think it will happen again,” said Yasuyuki Fukumuro, NASDA PR deputy director. Fukumuro quickly admitted that NEC would be allowed to bid for Japan’s new spy satellite system, after a token contract moratorium.

Back at the JDA, a grand total of six senior officials will take up to 10% pay cuts for one to three months plus one official will receive a 10-day suspension, JDA chief Fukushiro Nukuga told the media at his November 20 resignation press conference.

The speech followed a report, which admitted that there had been “some incidents that could be regarded as a systematic cover-up,” perhaps referring to the 31 officials suspected of Berlin-bunker style burning of documentation that might have provided evidence.

But the worst thing about the affair, according to observers, has been the brazen arrogance of NEC. In his October 23 resignation speech, NEC Chairman Tadahiro Sekimoto, now under personal investigation for his role in the affair, denied any involvement but resigned out of “social responsibility” for the affair, astonishing Kubozono in particular.

“Sekimoto’s act was spineless. If he had honor he would have resigned to take responsibility, not quibbled. He showed no mettle and is a very poor example for younger business leaders. I fear for Japan’s future.”

An even poorer analysis comes from Youichi Teraishi, Editor of Japan’s ‘scandaru’ [scandal] daily, the Nikkan Gendai. He says that Sekimoto’s act compared unfavorably with Yakuza (the Japanese Mafia) standards of conduct. “This Oyabun [Japanese gang boss] showed a lack of chivalry. Captains of industry are supposed to be able to demonstrate this, but Sekimoto lacked the class,” he says.

Lastly, the scandal has left NEC seething that it was singled out for a brutal slap on the wrist. “Everyone is doing it, why should we be the scapegoat?” admitted one NEC official. “Our top management just stuck their heads in the sand and got shafted,” complained another.

This article first appeared in Global Technology News.

Japan’s Defense Industrial Base Nearing Crisis

I haven’t been doing much work for the media recently as I focus on research but Defense News asked me to write on this subject for their Global Top 100 annual report, so it was my pleasure. Here is the short version of the work that I did for media purposes.

It’s grim. You get the picture, right. Actually I am following this up with another article soon. Apart from watching the Space Law saga (it might not pass Thursday, when the normal Diet session was due to have ended, but for the extension announced Monday) was happy to see that Mr. Tanaka, who is probably a very nice man, will be enjoying the rest of his career elsewhere and not in the MOD (c.f. my piece in Defense News: New Japanese DM Part of Move To Shake Up Leadership).

Anyway, here is the piece for Defense News: Japanese Defense Market Battles Flat Spending

Japan May Cancel F-35 Buy if Cost Rises

This February 27 article was widely copied by the major wire services once they woke up and realized it was a story. Actually the Sankei broke it early in the week, but I could feel acute stress from Lockheed Martin a few weeks earlier when they were talking about how good they were going to make the deal for Japan.

The fact is that Japan has no offset experience or culture. Sure Japan has some for space development with the International Space Station for which it is providing JEM, but it was not given the best of bargains. If I ever have time, I will one day write the story of the “battle of the centrifuge,” with the excellent Dr. Yasushi Horikawa. That aside, Japan has no legal or experience framework to structure an offset deal with the U.S. and it’s the clearest sign that if Japan wants to truly step forward into the arena of military offset, then it needs to shoot up a steep learning curve faster than Major General Chuck Yeager.

Anyway, here is what I wrote up for Defense News. The protests are clearly for public consumption. Except they are not!

Japan’s New-Old Defense White Paper

2011年8月8日

In China’s Search for a Grand Strategy (Foreign Affairs・March/April 2011), Wang Jisi, who is Dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, is obviously the chosen point man to present the kinder, gentler “it’s gonna be OK, don’t worry, be happy” face of China to the rest of us.

One of Wang’s primary arguments for explaining away China’s belligerence on the high sees, see for example the harassment of USNS Impeccable in international waters being one of the more minor incidents, is the need of the Chinese leadership to pander to the rabid nationalism it has created. In a country where free political debate is censored, nationalism is one of the few outlets. Now this monster has been released it must be pacified, leading to public hyperventilation and hyperbole and adolescent bullying on the seas.

Tuesday’s release of Japan’s 37th White Paper however gets to grips with the real issue at hand- China’s claims to sovereign rights and ju­risdiction over its Exclusive Economic Zone.  This key issue is a recipe for disaster. Coping with it will be a major task in hand for the U.S.-Japan Alliance.

 

The story remains the same…

 

In any case, here is the full article:

By PAUL KALLENDER-UMEZU TOKYO — Japan’s new defense white paper hints at an expecta­tion of long-term declines in U.S. military and economic strength and reflects an unprecedented level of concern about China.

“China’s future actions are wor­risome, given what can be inter­preted as its overbearing ways to address its clashing interests with neighboring countries, in­cluding Japan,” says the Aug. 2 paper by the Ministry of Defense (MoD), titled “Defense of Japan 2011.” Chinese government officials were quick to respond in Japan­ese media reports. Ma Zhaoxu, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, criticized “irre­sponsible comments,” while Chi­nese Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng accused Japan of deliberately exaggerating a “Chi­na threat.” At issue is the Japanese word “koatsuteki,” which can also be translated as “assertive,” and is used in an unofficial translation of the white paper to describe Japan’s concerns about China’s military modernization and ex­panding maritime reach, said Jun Okumura, adviser at the Eurasia Group here.

“The MoD merely said what everyone had on their minds,” Okumura said. “The Chinese side responded in kind.” Okumura said Tokyo would be remiss not to comment on recent provocations by the Chinese Navy, including multiple incur­sions into Japanese territorial waters by destroyers and nu­clear-powered submarines, and the “buzzing” of vessels and airspace. All this comes after China’s 20-year military buildup and a quadrupling of military spending in the last decade.

Analysts said much of the paper’s language and approach echo longstanding themes: It calls the U.S. Japan alliance “indispensable,” warns of cyber attacks, and so on.

“It is very much in line with what you would expect in a year with a revised NDPG,” the National Defense Program Guidelines released in December, said Christopher Hughes, a professor of interna­tional politics and Japanese studies at Britain’s University of Warwick.

But the paper also mentions a “global shift in the balance of power” — code for potential long-term U.S. military and eco­nomic decline.

A reference to territorial disputes, though brief, is ominous, according to Pe­ter Woolley, a professor of comparative politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University in New Jersey.

“Japan is geographically surrounded by water and has a long coastline and numer­ous islands,” Woolley said. “Invasion of these islands can be anticipated as one form of armed attack. Any Japanese reader knows very well that the retreat of U.S. in­fluence, to be replaced by that of new ac­tors, is problematic and complex for Japan.” South Korea is complaining about Tokyo’s claims on the Sea of Japan islands that Seoul calls Dokdo.

The paper also notes that China plans to expand its maritime activities. That reflects growing Japanese and U.S. concern about Beijing’s claims to sovereign rights and ju­risdiction over its Exclusive Economic Zone, said James Manicom, a naval expert at Cana­da’s Balsillie School of International Affairs. “I don’t think the tone is that surprising,” Manicom said. “The most important differ­ence as it relates to maritime issues is the addition of China’s interpretation of inter­national law as a subject of concern.” The paper reflects concern about North Korea’s new Musudan ballistic missile, which can hit Guam, and other threats, said Alessio Patalano, an expert on Japanese mil­itary issues at Kings College, London.

“The sinking of the Cheonan, the artillery shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, China’s air­craft and carrier programs, are other exam­ples. Japan’s response was clear and sought to underline the potential risk presented by the missile programs of North Korea, and by China’s evolving behavior at sea,” Patalano said.

The paper also contains a 13-page section on the March 11 Great East Japan Earth­quake, lauding the U.S. response that in­cluded about 16,000 troops, 15 vessels and 140 aircraft.

The aid operation “looms large because it is important to a beleaguered Japanese pub­lic, because Japan is genuinely grateful and prepared to say so,” Woolley said.