Here is an older about the IGS spy satellite constellation for Space News which has been left “as is” by the Office of National Space Policy (ONSP) in its February 25 Mk. II Basic Plan. I have a lot to say about this for academia this year, but managed to get a story out for Aviation Week & Space Technology, which I’ll post a bit later.
Posted by japanspace on May 9, 2013
https://japanspace.wordpress.com/2013/05/09/japan-rebuilding-igs-spy-satellite-network/
This story was NOT a surprise; the fuller story is at Japan Still Calculating Cost of Defense Firm’s Padded Bills, but ever since NEC Corp. in 1998 was found with its hands in the till, I have been wondering who would be fingered next, and when, and why when, and why.
I say this because when I chatted to people back in 1998, the practice of padding contracts with surplus labor costs was widespread in the space and defense sectors and this was commonly known. At the time the questions were Why NEC? And Why Now? Below my initial October story is NEC SCANDAL SHEDS LIGHT ON JAPANESE PROCUREMENTS, a more fruity web version of a story that I originally wrote for Space News back in the day.
The timing for the original NEC story was also interesting as NEC was strongly pushing for its version of what was to become Japan’s IGS spy satellite system that was provoked by the Teapodon Trigger– an analysis that Saadia and I wrote about in In Defense of Japan (thank you Google Books!)
At the time NEC’s version of what was to become the IGS would have featured smaller satellites and cost less than Melco’s system. But with NEC suddenly out of the picture, Melco, with Ichiro Taniguchi at the helm, managed to personally lobby Japan’s Cabinet in the weeks after the Taepondon launch, and Japan’ got the IGS.
Here is a nice picture from Space Safety Magazine of Japan’s 1,200-Kilogram IGS 1B Satellite re-entered Earth’s Atmosphere on Thursday, July 26, 2012 after spending nearly 9.5 years in space. Another more detailed article about this can be found at Spaceflight.101.com.
Eventually, NEC’s small-bus and higher resolution system has been re-emerging in the ASNARO system, which is now being pushed as an alternative and complementary system to the expensive and relatively lower performance IGS, and also as the linchpin of a satellite-based, pan-Asian disaster monitoring network that is now a major part of Japan’s emerging regional space diplomacy and security strategy. At least the Vietnamese have bought into it, and while customers don’t seem to be forming a line yet, there is still a lot of hope out there.
Here is the initial story for Defense News:
By Paul Kallender in Tokyo
When, in September 1998, an investigation into the Japanese Defense Agency (JDA) discovered that Japanese technology giant NEC Corp had systematically defrauded the taxpayer on 33 space contracts over the course of five years, it looked as though Japan’s obviously abused government procurement system was about to get a major overhaul.
The investigation began promisingly enough. On September 3, Tokyo prosecutors raided the JDA and arrested Kenichi Ueno, deputy head of the Procurement Office, and a clutch of executives from NEC subsidiary Toyo Communications.
This followed discoveries that not only had Toyo overcharged the JDA some $21m over dozens of equipment contracts, but that Ueno and others had conspired to prevent Toyo, NEC and other subsidiaries from repaying the money. NEC was raided the next day and by September 10, nine senior NEC and JDA executives were in jail.
It came to light that Ueno and others had lifted incriminating paperwork out of the Agency’s filing cabinets and put them into incinerators and even the homes of friends. NEC’s SuperTower headquarters was soon besieged by the Japanese phenomenon of ‘sound trucks,’ driven by right-wing extremists screaming abuse and demanding mass resignations.
But instead of resulting in the punishment of protagonists and the start of reforms, the scandal collapsed into a desultory cover-up. NEC’s initial response was to deny everything, with a bemused VP Masakatsu Miwa telling the media on September 10 that he did not expect top NEC executives to resign because of the scandal, going on to explain that he “wondered why” NEC officials were being implicated. Unfortunately for Miwa, on September 29, NEC’s overcharging was upscaled to $2.5bn, while, on the same day, a Parliamentary committee reported that the JDA had hired no less than 44 NEC executives in senior positions in just two years. By October 10, former NEC VP Hiroaki Shimayama and Takenori Yanase, VP of NEC’s Space Systems Division, had both been arrested.
Thieves charter
The National Space Development Agency (NASDA) launched an inquiry and on November 9, NEC admitted overcharging by at least $19m. Meanwhile on October 14, the JDA revealed that 225 of its officials had been hired by 20 suppliers in the past five years, shedding some dim light on a corner of Japan’s Amadudari (Descent from Heaven) career kickback system.
At the heart of the issue, according to NASDA’s former executive director Akira Kubozono, is the flawed government contract system which encourages corruption through a combination of legendary meanness and bureaucratic incompetence.
“There are two points about this affair,” he said. “One is that NEC is just a scapegoat. The second is that the governmental contract system is the cause of this scandal. When the defense contract revelations began, I thought it was only a matter of time before it spread into NEC’s space systems division as both defense and space procurement are conducted under similar systems.”
Under the Japanese government contract system, the co ntractor is obliged to repay any unused budget if the delivery price falls below the contract amount, and the contractor must also incur any costs if the project overshoots the agreed estimate — a thieves charter if ever there was one.
Furthermore NASDA, the Science and Technology Agency and the Ministry of Finance lack the technical expertise to evaluate bids and tend to just accept company estimates, says Kubozono. “The system needs to be reformed but I doubt this is possible as long as NASDA and the corporations are controlled by STA administrators (who also often retire to executive positions in NASDA) and not by engineers,” he says.
No mettle Kubozono, it seems, was right.
By November 12, the space scandal seemed to have been wrapped up, with NASDA saying it was satisfied that only NEC had abused the system. “The system has worked well for 30 years. We believe that a little devil whispered into NEC’s ear. We do not think it will happen again,” said Yasuyuki Fukumuro, NASDA PR deputy director. Fukumuro quickly admitted that NEC would be allowed to bid for Japan’s new spy satellite system, after a token contract moratorium.
Back at the JDA, a grand total of six senior officials will take up to 10% pay cuts for one to three months plus one official will receive a 10-day suspension, JDA chief Fukushiro Nukuga told the media at his November 20 resignation press conference.
The speech followed a report, which admitted that there had been “some incidents that could be regarded as a systematic cover-up,” perhaps referring to the 31 officials suspected of Berlin-bunker style burning of documentation that might have provided evidence.
But the worst thing about the affair, according to observers, has been the brazen arrogance of NEC. In his October 23 resignation speech, NEC Chairman Tadahiro Sekimoto, now under personal investigation for his role in the affair, denied any involvement but resigned out of “social responsibility” for the affair, astonishing Kubozono in particular.
“Sekimoto’s act was spineless. If he had honor he would have resigned to take responsibility, not quibbled. He showed no mettle and is a very poor example for younger business leaders. I fear for Japan’s future.”
An even poorer analysis comes from Youichi Teraishi, Editor of Japan’s ‘scandaru’ [scandal] daily, the Nikkan Gendai. He says that Sekimoto’s act compared unfavorably with Yakuza (the Japanese Mafia) standards of conduct. “This Oyabun [Japanese gang boss] showed a lack of chivalry. Captains of industry are supposed to be able to demonstrate this, but Sekimoto lacked the class,” he says.
Lastly, the scandal has left NEC seething that it was singled out for a brutal slap on the wrist. “Everyone is doing it, why should we be the scapegoat?” admitted one NEC official. “Our top management just stuck their heads in the sand and got shafted,” complained another.
This article first appeared in Global Technology News.
Posted by japanspace on November 19, 2012
https://japanspace.wordpress.com/2012/11/19/jsp-catchup-6-probe-uncovers-40-year-japanese-contractor-fraud/
As I predicted on this blog back on March 16 (Taepodon Trigger #3: DPRK to attempt 3rd Satellite Shot- Third Time Lucky?) and March 18 (Taepodon Trigger #3: Update) the DPRK is likely to follow up its satellite launch with a third nuclear test.
The test is a necessary part of the military circenses (sans the panem, pity the poor long-suffering Korean people) to usher in the Kim Jong-un fronted era with a celebartory big bang and fireworks, DPRK-style.
This according to Reuters:
North Korea, pressing ahead with a rocket launch in defiance of a UN resolution, is also preparing a third nuclear weapons test, South Korean news reports said on Sunday…
South Korea’s Yonhap news agency quoted an unidentified intelligence source as saying North Korea was “clandestinely preparing a nuclear test” at the same location as the first two.
The source added that workers in the destitute North had been seen in commercial satellite images digging a tunnel in the northeastern town of Punggye-ri, Kilju County, in addition to existing mines believed to have been used for tests in 2006 and 2009.
Here is an interesting take on the whole thing by none other than Henry Kissinger: North Korea’s Nuclear Challenge on ihavenet.com.
Posted by japanspace on April 8, 2012
https://japanspace.wordpress.com/2012/04/08/as-predicted-n-korea-preparing-for-third-nuclear-test/
Amongst the dross and hysteria about Japan “preparing to intercept” his month’s North Korean “missile” with PAC-3 or SM-3 the WSJ has just printed something sensible about the upcoming Eunha-3 launch of the DPRK’s third satellite, Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3.
(I particularly like the picture used in this AP picture, with the use of the green camouflage on the PAC-3 batteries to help protect them from the evil commies, while the batteries are surrounded the cherry blossom and slate gray blocks of flats they can’t protect against a “missile” that’s not going to come within a 1,000 kilometers of them.)
This follows another excellent piece in Businessweek, NKorea launch an intel opportunity for US, allies, which features the excellent Narushige Michishita and Hiroyasu Akutsu.
In Japan Readies Response to Pyongyang’s Launch the WSJ finally places at least one correct caveat in the story that anybody who has any basic understanding of the launch and Japan’s BMD technology would know instantly:
This time, North Korea says it will launch in a southerly, not an easterly, direction. That means the rocket is expected to pass high over Okinawan islands in the East China Sea, an area that has become a security concern for Tokyo amid disputes with China and worries over that country’s increasing military profile.
At last WSJ and BW are getting closer to the real story… Japan and the U.S. have known about this launch since December and the story is win-win-win for everyone, the DPRK, the media, who are getting a good story despite the fact that most hacks have just become (willing or unwitting) cyphers, politicians and Japan’s BMD spending. DPRK is good for one thing- stimulating Japan’s defense!
Remember that SM-3 is designed to shoot down an IRBM in orbit (at the moment one might be about it, on a good day) in space and so far it has been achieving success in carefully coordinated and choreographed tests. PAC-3 is designed as a terminal phase descent against a high speed missile, not against tumbling slow moving small bit of rocket debris. In the billions-or trillions-to-one chances that a rocket casing or chunk of something manages somehow to get on a trajectory to hit a tiny island such as Miyakojima, neither SM-3 or PAC-3 are going to be much use. But don’t let reality impinge on a good story!
It’s a pity the WSJ befuddles the implications of their statement that the rocket is going to come nowhere near Japan, that somehow the Eunha-3, the DPRK by suggesting the emerging naval arms race between China and Japan over the East China Sea has anything to do with our little North Korean rocket. That’s also besides the point that if something does go suddenly seriously wrong with the rocket, Japan’s two-tiered BMD system probably can’t do anything with it anyway.
But without the implication of threat and controversy, there isn’t much of a story saying something like, erm, “Japan prepares training exercise for some Aegis cruisers to track North Korean satellite launch.”
The article then contains an interesting interpretation of facts and motives as told by Defense Minister Tanaka:
On Friday, Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka told reporters that nothing unusual should be read into the southern deployment. “It’s not related to a strengthening of our defense structure,” he said. “It’s just in case.”
That’s a new one!
PAC-3 has long been planned as part of the MOD’s latest Mid-Term Defense Plan precisely to send a message to China, as MOD told me March 13, well before before the “story broke” about the upcoming launch, that PAC-3 was deployed to Okinawa anyway.
Then the article quotes a local analyst who has a take on things that is something nearer what all this is all about:
“The Ministry of Defense and the Self-Defense Forces must be thankful to Pyongyang for providing a chance for training under such real circumstances,” said Tetsuo Maeda, a Japanese military analyst.
Since Japan and the U.S. have known about the launch since December, the “news” by the media which in the case of knowledgeable Japanese journalists amounts to a clear case of deliberately whipping up the froth to make it a good story, and for “foreign correspondents” based here to roll out a bunch of nonsense about the whole thing.
As I said in my original article, this latest Taepondon Trigger is an excellent chance for Japan to get training in and ramp the threat up so as to loosen up budget for more BMD after 2015.
In fact both North Korea and Japan and the U.S. have a lot to gain by the launch. As I originally wrote a month or so ago, succeed or fail, the launch will be a valuable propaganda victory for the military and political junta backing Kim Jong-il , and it will be both an intelligence bonanza and is already proving a valuable fear creation scenario to help Japan strengthen its defenses.
Posted by japanspace on April 7, 2012
https://japanspace.wordpress.com/2012/04/07/some-ok-journalism-on-upcoming-dprk-launch/
The plot thickens. As I pointed out in my original blog, all is not what it seems in the conventional media narrative about North Korean space launches and missile tests. The Yomiuri in “DPRK ‘told U.S. about plan on Dec. 15′” has just done some important work in revealing that it may well be that the United States knew as early as mid-December about this April’s North Korean satellite launch. The story reads as follows:
“WASHINGTON–A senior North Korean government official informed the United States before the death of Kim Jong Il was announced in December of its plan to launch a satellite, according to a former senior U.S. government official.
In an article for a U.S. research institute, Evans Revere, who served as acting assistant secretary of state under the administration of President George W. Bush, wrote that the decision to carry out the launch is highly likely to have been made by the late North Korean leader.
…Revere met with the North Korean official on Dec. 15 and was told about the planned launch of what some people believed to be a missile. The meeting is believed to have taken place in New York…”
This fits entirely in with standard practice by media, partly because it’s a great story, to hype the DPRK threat, (remember the original Taepodon incident of 1998 was not a shock at all, it was a trigger) which is used by Japan’s political establishment (rightly, in my opinion) to promote further strategic investment and spending in Japan’s defense capabilities. Ultimately, and very indirectly of course, this is fed by nationalism and fear of abandonment. Those specters lurk very deep in the background. But they are there, nonetheless.
This whole prearranged dance is not what it seems at all…
….While a minor and enjoyable subroutine of my job as a researcher is to look at how politicians and the media work to manufacture opinion one of the hazards and joys is looking at the some of the dire rubbish that is fed to otherwise intelligent readers by the dregs of the media, I feel it’s important to keep some sort of sensible narrative up about important incidents such at the DPRK’s satellite launch. The whole idea about deploying PAC-3 to Okinawa to defend Japan is made-up media guff but the launch over the Yellow Sea will provide the MSDF with a valuable tracking and training opportunity, while there is no threat to Japan or its southernmost island chain at all.
For your amusement:
If you did read the CNN piece about those good ol’ Eagis ships protecting us from the commies, you would have also learned from CNN International that the North Koreans were planning “a rocket-powered satellite launch.” Or was that The Daily Telegraph? Well hot dog!
It looks like the Taepodon Trigger #3 is fully in effect in both Japan and the ROK meanwhile.
Posted by japanspace on March 23, 2012
https://japanspace.wordpress.com/2012/03/23/taepodon-trigger3-son-of-taepodon/
Update; some news has made it into some media that the Eunha-3 is going to come nowhere near Japan and it seems the press is gradually catching up to the news that the rocket’s path is due south as we see it “consistent with a satellite launch.” Of course it’s good PR to use the launch to focus attention on the need for Japan to bolster its BMD, but it seems people are slowly waking up to some basic facts about the launch.
The latest spin is “crash fears” about the “propulsion stage.” Put on your tin helmets!
The Taepodon Trigger (by which I mean magnifying external events to trigger changes in Japan’s national security stance) is now fully in effect, with politicians and the media not wasting the opportunity drum up and repackage a good story about Japan preparing to shoot down the DPRK’s Eunha-3 (Galaxy) rocket next month to launch the Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 if necessary.
The story, as repackaged from the Asahi in Time (Japan Threatens to Shoot Down NoKo Missile. Really) is a typical copying local reports “that Japanese Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka told Diet members Monday that “We will take the (necessary) procedures in the event of a contingency that threatens our country’s security,” and pointed out that Japan has Patriot PAC-3 and Aegis destroyers that could do the job. Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Forces began deploying Patriot batteries to Japan’s southern islands today.”
The article then goes on to copy the same old media rubric that I have to use in my media articles about the “Japanese” still being “traumatized by a 1998 test in which nuclear-armed North Korea lobbed a ballistic missile directly over the home islands.”
“The incident prompted the Japanese to join the US in missile-defense R&D, and it remains a cornerstone of Japanese defense policy.”
This is lazy journalism, reinventing the past and not checking the facts and not knowing the basics about what is happening because:
1. The 1998 “missile test” was a space launch attempt and Japan and the U.S. were notified about it at least a month in advance and in fact an Aegis cruiser was put in the Sea of Japan to track the SLV’s flightpath
2. The original Taepodong 1 did not overfly or violate Japan’s territory.
3. Japan’s cooperation with MD did not directly result from this incident; in fact the IGS program was triggered.
Please see In Defense of Japan for more details and Taepodon Trigger #3: DPRK to attempt 3rd Satellite Shot- Third Time Lucky?
The SLV will fly over the Yellow Sea and not Japan. SM-3 is designed to intercept an IRBM in orbit. PAC-3 is not designed to shoot down IRBMs and even if the thing blew up on the way up, there is a vanishingly small chance of a hunk of metal landing on Naha. Could PAC-3 be of any use anyway? Perhaps a garbage-can chunk of debris containing a basket ball sized satellite might conceivably drop somewhere over the Yellow Sea somewhere but what has that got to do with PAC-3?
Finally all of the press (including the Yomiuri’s Govt may send PAC-3s to Okinawa / SDF readying for launch of DPRK rocket) is ignoring the fact that the movement of PAC-3 is ALREADY PLANNED.
But don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story. Please see my Defense News article from this week below.
The point is that these and other “scares” will be used to help bolster Japan’s defense posture, which is an excellent thing overall.
Posted by japanspace on March 20, 2012
https://japanspace.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/taepodon-trigger-3-part-iii-full-media-spin-now-warping-reality/
Here’s a twist. Our nice neighbors from the north are inviting us to go watch their new toy blast off.
As I predicted on Friday’s piece, meanwhile the Japanese are talking about blasting the thing out of space. Take a look at (JFTM-1) Stellar Kiji! Pretty cool!
Right on cue the Taepodon Trigger #3 is already working, with the J-media queuing to bait pols with patriot tests (pun intended, sorry) while cooking up a fair bit of hysteria over a minor satellite launch. Albeit one clearly and very properly in violation of UN Security Council resolution 1874
Here from Kyodo:
Japan Starts Mulling Plan On Intercepting N Korean Rocket
OMITAMA (Kyodo)–Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka said Saturday that his ministry has started considering whether to take preparatory measures to destroy the rocket-mounted satellite North Korea is preparing to launch next month.
You have to laugh at Kyodo. “Rocket mounted satellite.” You don’t say!
The ministry is considering whether to deploy ground-based Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptors and Aegis-equipped destroyers carrying Standard Missile-3 ballistic missile interceptors, Tanaka told reporters at the Air Self-Defense Force’s Hyakuri air base in Omitama, Ibaraki Prefecture.
‘‘We are currently doing a mental exercise to prepare (for the planned rocket launch), using the previous incident as our guide,” Tanaka said, referring to the government’s decision at the time of the launch of long-range ballistic missile by Pyongyang in April 2009.
In March 2009, Yasukazu Hamada, defense minister at the time, issued an order for the Self-Defense Forces to destroy a North Korean rocket or its debris in the event that it fell onto Japanese territory.
With the issuance of the order, the ASDF dispatched units capable of launching PAC-3 missiles to Iwate and Akita prefectures in northeastern Japan as well as the Tokyo metropolitan area, while the Maritime Self-Defense Force deployed three Aegis guided-missile destroyers in the Sea of Japan and the Pacific.
Then right on cue, here are both Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda (not Yoshiko Noda) on the telly on Asahi News doing the very normal thing of telling future MOD leaders graduating from the 防衛大学 (where I have some Karate mates- tough geezers!) that AP defense situation is opaque and Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka telling them they’d better have their smarts on.
Expect next month’s launch to (a) be a prelude to a possible nuke test and (b) for Japan to go for strenghtened and semi-independent space-based EW at the end of the decade.
Posted by japanspace on March 18, 2012
https://japanspace.wordpress.com/2012/03/18/taepodon-trigger-3-update/
You couldn’t make it up. You just couldn’t. I just asked the MOD about this very likelihood this week!
The announcement that the DPRK is attempting a third satellite launch in mid-April is just the sort of development that will help propel Japan’s basic BMD and nascent military space deployment.
The fact that so the Eunha-3 (Galaxy) rocket will fly over the Yellow Sea and not Japan doesn’t mean the news hasn’t already caused a huge stir in Japan, with the story being the top news on most TV.
Regardless of the flightpath, the launch will constitute another violation of June 2009’s UNSC Resolution 1874 that was passed the last time DPRK tried to launch a satellite (see below).
“We urge North Korea to exercise restraint and refrain from the launch,” said Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura, echoing statements from ROK.
What timing!
On Tuesday I was talking to Masayuki Iwaike, Director of Missile Defense and Space Policy at MOD about Japan’s approach to SSA and likely speed of moves by Japan on Early Warning, following last June’s 2+2, when Japan and the U.S. basically agreed that Japan will add some form of EW capability to its BMD systems, either through adding IR sensors on QZSS/Michibiki or through several different satellite bus plans (candidates include
SERVIS-3 by USEF and ASNARO, among others) with the CISC probably jealously guarding its independence with the IGS program, keeping it from the Space Strategy Office to be formed in April.
The key point about next week’s Defense News article, will be that Japan has more or less completed its basic two-tier BMD system, with its radar and sensor structure also on the verge of completion with the fourth and final FPS-5 S-band phased array ground based early warning radar nearly finished, joining the upgraded FPS-3 3-D phased-array radars, and JADGE up and running. Meanwhile PAC-3 is being boosted and the MSDF is adding two more SM3-Block 1A capable cruisers.
So the big question was to Iwaike, will you accelerate plans or add capability if the recent U.S.-DPRK agreement turns out to be not worth the paper its written on?
– Remember last month North Korea supposedly agreed to suspend uranium enrichment, halt nuclear and long-range missile tests, and to allow back U.N. weapons inspectors in exchange for a quarter of a million tons of “food aid.”
So what happens if they start firing off their nasty fireworks demonstrating significant new capabilities, or creditable information comes out about successful miniaturization of their Pakistani/stolen bargain-basement fission bomb technology (actually, then consequently making it a creditable threat)?
Will Japan build out BMD?
Of course, I didn’t put the it that way, but the message was an unequivocal yes. Because all the key systems are in place. But that’s for next week’s article.
Please read Defense News on Monday.
The beauty of the SM3-/PAC-3 two-tier system is that it works (with caveats, see Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress) and it’s only going to get better. And when the Chinese decided to create chaos in orbit with its 2007 ASAT test leading to what is rapidly going to become a crisis if nothing is done over the next decade, the U.S. was able to remind the Chinese just whom they are dealing with if they are serious.
And then, just on time, news comes out that North Korea is attempting its third satellite launch (Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3) around April 12-16 to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth Kim Il Sung, on April 15.
The Taepodon Trigger
One of the key stories in In Defense of Japan is the story of the Taepodon Trigger, which is more commonly called the Taepodon Shock.
Whatever else it doesn’t have going for it, the DPRK is a master of timing. It’s almost as if it wants Japan to further rearm to create a foreign bugbear to rail against and rally the (starving) masses. The history of DPRK missile launches is quite intriguing. In 1998, the attempted launch of Kwangmyongsong-1 
aboard a re-gigged Taepodon gave Japan the decisive inflection point it needed to launching military space development, instead of developing dual-use technology research and development programs that could be converted to military use if and when needed. This is essentially the story behind Japan’s IGS, which is a regigged Melco USERS bus with not very good radar and optical sensors (which are getting better, nearing half-meter now for Gen-2 optical at least).
At the time, I can vividly remember the shock and outrage behind the missile overfly, which was largely stage-managed by media and politicians, since (a) Japan and the U.S. knew about the launch a month in advance, having been informed by the DPRK about it, and had an Aegis missile cruiser tracking the thing (b) the satellite launch didn’t actually violate Japan’s airspace at all and (c) as was actually an attempted satellite launch, not a missile test, as made out by the Japanese media.
Now while I am a strong supporter of Japan and no fan of the DPRK, the facts are the facts. Within 10 days of the “shocking missile test,” Ichiro Taniguchi, the Lion of Melco, was briefing the Cabinet on what was to become IGS. For more on this, please read In Defense of Japan.
But it was more of the same in 2009 when the nation in April attempted the 
launch of Kwangmyŏngsŏng-2 aboard an Unha-2 rocket carrying the satellite, following this with two rounds of missile tests in July 2009 and then a probably partially successful nuclear test in October. A busy year for everyone, and provocation that has helped Japan to bolster its SM-3 fleet to six ships.
In a perverse sense, the latest launch looks right on schedule. In order to prop up the 3rd incarnation of the Kim Dynasty, the DPRK needed a quick win in its poker strategy diplomacy of threat, bluff, and (insincere) concession cycle. On what levels the events of the last two months are wins for the regime vary; if they get the food and launch the satellite, it will buy the new regime a lot of time perhaps. If the perfidious Yankie and, etc., imperialists “renegade” on the deal, and the satellite is triumphantly launched (whether it will or not, it will still triumphantly succeed in glorious honor of what not, of course, right) then it still provides glue to hang the new regime together on. Oh the poor suffering people.
All this of course is grist for the mill for Japan and is, ahem, unlikely to disincentivize Japan from pushing forward with EW and better BMD.
Update: This is from Reuters: Launch called a ‘deal-breaker
The U.S. State Department issued the following statement, March 16:
“North Korea’s announcement that it plans to conduct a missile launch in direct violation of its international obligations is highly provocative. UN Security Council Resolutions 1718 and 1874 clearly and unequivocally prohibit North Korea from conducting launches that use ballistic missile technology. Such a missile launch would pose a threat to regional security and would also be inconsistent with North Korea’s recent undertaking to refrain from long-range missile launches. We call on North Korea to adhere to its international obligations, including all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions. We are consulting closely with our international partners on next steps. U.S. now says it will not send food aid to North Korea if it goes ahead with the long-range rocket launch, and U.N. Security Council members said it may violate sanctions.”
The DPRK argues that satellite launches are part of a peaceful space program that is exempt from international disarmament obligations, but according to Reuters, State Department spokesman Victoria Nuland said the U.S. now had “grave concerns” about the Feb. 29 agreement under which the North agreed with the U.S. to nuclear concessions and a moratorium on long-range missile tests in return for 240,000 tons of food aid.
Nuland said a rocket launch would call into question North Korea’s good faith. She said that during the negotiations for the U.S.-North Korea agreement, “we made clear unequivocally that we considered that any satellite launch would be a deal-breaker.
Expect a third nuclear test!
Posted by japanspace on March 16, 2012
https://japanspace.wordpress.com/2012/03/16/taepodon-trigger-3-dprk-to-attempt-3rd-satellite-shot-third-time-lucky/
Japan Space Policy 