Japan Space Law: Now Mid-May, or When?

What is this man doing?

News from the Strategic Headquarters for Space Policy (SHSP, 内閣官房宇宙開発戦略本部事務局) just in is that the Law to establish Japan’s new space structure, in which the Prime Minister’s Cabinet Office will start to try to wrest control of Japan’s space programs from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), will now be delayed until mid-May.

According to SHSP director Mikio Aoki, the bill, which was submitted to Japan’s lower house, the House of Representatives on Feb. 14 was originally to have been debated and passed by the end of March.  It was then rescheduled for April 20. However, the DPJ administration is bogged down in other issues, most notably Prime Minister’ Noda’s discussions with opposition leaders about the DPJ’s plans to raise the consumption tax from April 2014. on which Noda has said he has staked his political life.

Noda is widely suspected of planning to dissolve the Lower House for a snap election if the Diet rejects the taxation bill. If this happens, then Japan faces another long and frustrating wait to enact the Basic Space Law of 2008.

The space bill, Cabinet Office Restructuring and Reform Law (内閣府設置法等の一部を改正する法律(閣議決定)),  is designed to fundamentally restructure the control of Japan’s space program and remove the restriction on the nation’s main space agency, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) from developing military space programs. It is designed to enable the Prime Minister’s Cabinet Office to set up a 30-member Space Strategy Office (宇宙戦略室) that is headed by the Japanese Prime Minister while scrapping the Space Activities Commission, which currently controls JAXA. The Strategy Office  will assume control of all of Japan’s space planning, program and budget control, including that of JAXA through a new Strategic Space Committee set up in the Office, also chaired by the Prime Minister, said Takafumi Matsui, Emeritus Professor of Tokyo University and chairman of the advisory committee that proposed the law. For more on this, please see: Bill to Establish the 内閣府宇宙戦略室 (Space Strategy Office) sent to the Diet.

The Bill should have been drawn up and enacted within two years of the original Basic Law but was stalled by the election of the DPJ in 2009 and the opposition of MEXT, with the SHSP only managing to find a workable compromise this February. For some details of this, please see How will the SHSP’s Next-Gen Space Plan Unfold? The architects of the Bill had tied it to the General Space Activities budget,  which should have been passed March 31; and if the delay stretches much beyond May, this could impact Japan’s space policy making for yet another year.

Details Scant on Anglo-Japan Defense Cooperation

Japan’s leading daily, the Yomiuri Shimbun, has a long editorial (see Japanese-British security ties must be strengthened) on UK PM David Cameron’s meeting with Japanese PM Yoshihiko Noda on Tuesday, but details of exactly what the potential partners are going to cooperate on remain scarce.

BAE M-777

BAE Systems M-777

My sources tell me that there is quite a bit of regret in some sections of Japan’s political and military establishment for choosing the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightening II multirole fighter over the Eurofighter Consortium’s Typhoon, whose development is being led by BAE Systems. Analysts not troubled by ties to the U.S. who seem pretty neutral, question last December’s decision to buy American after a long and lengthy RFP say that the Typhoon, which while expensive could work out considerably cheaper than the F-35, would have actually suited Japan’s needs more.

With the cost outlook for the F-35 seeming to worsen every time you care to look, (see  Japan F-35 deal unchanged, Japan May Cancel F-35 Buy if Cost Rises, or just Google search “F-35 Canada”!)  one senior source in the UK Defense establishment called Japan’s purchase of the F-35 not so much a license to assemble the vaunted but troubled 5th generation stealth fighter so much as “a license to write a blank check” to the Americans.

The article reaches the same sort of conclusions Andrew Chuter and I printed last week:

“Small equipment, such as chemical protective suits, is considered a strong candidate at the initial stage of the joint development between Japan and Britain. The British side suggested a helicopter as a candidate. We hope the two countries will study and select a program advantageous to both countries.”

The article also contains some disturbing information about those perpetually cast Japan as some sort of nationalist warmongering nation not weaned of/ harboring secret intentions to regain past imperial pretensions aided and abetted by the U.S.

“To the Defense Ministry’s knowledge, 35 tank-related companies, 26 vessel-related companies and 21 fighter-related firms have either withdrawn from the defense industry or gone bankrupt since 2003.”

Sensation! (Yawn) U.S. Helped Japan Accumulate Tons of Plutonium

A rather sensationalistic account by Huntington News: United States Circumvented Laws To Help Japan Accumulate Tons of Plutonium about Japan’s nuclear energy program has just come out that draws together many already known facts about Japan’s potential for dual-use capabilities that begins with the lede:

Japan's Troubled Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant

“The United States deliberately allowed Japan access to the United States’ most secret nuclear weapons facilities while it transferred tens of billions of dollars worth of American tax paid research that has allowed Japan to amass 70 tons of weapons grade plutonium since the 1980s, a National Security News Service investigation reveals. These activities repeatedly violated U.S. laws regarding controls of sensitive nuclear materials that could be diverted to weapons programs in Japan. The NSNS investigation found that the United States has known about a secret nuclear weapons program in Japan since the 1960s, according to CIA reports.”

If you want to cut to the chase about all this, please see this blog’s entry: The NHK’s “News” on Japan’s Not-So-Secret Nuclearization Plan 1968-70

But back to the “new-old news.”

The Huntington News report goes on to state:

“Highly sensitive technology on plutonium separation from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site and Hanford nuclear weapons complex, as well as tens of billions of dollars worth of breeder reactor research was turned over to Japan with almost no safeguards against proliferation. Japanese scientist and technicians were given access to both Hanford and Savannah River as part of the transfer process.”

This is quite common knowledge among nuclear researchers. Unfortunately the article then goes on to jump to ridiculous conclusions, suggesting that Japan has somehow how has a bomb program.

“While Japan has refrained from deploying nuclear weapons and remains under an umbrella of U.S. nuclear protection, NSNS has learned that the country has used its electrical utility companies as a cover to allow the country to amass enough nuclear weapons materials to build a nuclear arsenal larger than China, India and Pakistan combined.”

The article drops any pretense of balance by then stating:

“But there was also a secret component, an undeclared nuclear weapons program that would allow Japan to amass enough nuclear material and technology to become a major nuclear power on short notice.”

This is essentially sensationalism in the context of the article. It is no secret that Japan has the ability to manufacture nuclear weapons, if a political decision were taken to do so. But there is absolutely no creditable evidence of a secret bomb program

In fact, as the article states, Japan has had the ability to build nuclear weapons since the 1960s,  and this is not a secret. In fact a major study at the end of the 1960s concluded that  building an arsenal would be actually and obviously counterproductive to Japan’s security and tremendously destabilizing to Asia-Pacific security. Japan’s small size, its geographically concentrated industry, and the close proximity of potentially hostile powers all render the country vulnerable to a nuclear strike.

Such a decision to build nuclear weapons would only happen in extremis if Japan had clear and unequivocal evidence of abandonment from the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty.

The article does however, shed light on the transfer of sensitive U.S.-Japan Agreement that involved a a five-year period of cooperation between the U.S. and Japan on fast breeder reactor technologies, which involved  access to and perhaps transferal of sophisticated plutonium separation hardware housed at U.S. Savannah River Site, which tested centrifuges, that were shipped to were shipped to Japan for use in Japan’s Recycle Energy Test Facility (RETF), that was to be used to reprocess plutonium produced in Monju and Joyo, Japan’s two fast breeder reactors.

The best summary of this situation can be taken from the Federation of American Scientist’s website, from which the following conclusions are taken

Having renounced war, the possession of war potential, the right of belligerency, and the possession of nuclear weaponry, it held the view that it should possess only the minimum defense necessary to face external threats. The Japanese government values its close relations with the United States, and it remains dependent on the United States nuclear umbrella.

During the Sato cabinet in the 1960’s, it is reported that Japan secretly studied the development of nuclear weapons. On 17 June 1974, Japanese Prime Minister Tsutomu Hata told reporters that “it’s certainly the case that Japan has the capability to possess nuclear weapons but has not made them.” This remark aroused widespread concern in the international media at that time.

Japan’s nuclear power program based on reprocessed plutonium has aroused widespread suspicion that Japan is secretly planning to develop nuclear weapons. Japan’s nuclear technology and ambiguous nuclear inclinations have provided a considerable nuclear potential, becoming a “paranuclear state.” Japan would not have material or technological difficulties in making nuclear weapons. Japan has the raw materials, technology, and capital for developing nuclear weapons. Japan could possibly produce functional nuclear weapons in as little as a year’s time. On the strength of its nuclear industry, and its stockpile of weapons-useable plutonium, Japan in some respects considers itself, and is treated by others as, as a virtual nuclear weapons state.”

As Predicted: N. Korea preparing for third nuclear test…

As I predicted on this blog back on March 16 (Taepodon Trigger #3: DPRK to attempt 3rd Satellite Shot- Third Time Lucky?) and March 18 (Taepodon Trigger #3: Update)  the DPRK is likely to follow up its satellite launch with a third nuclear test.

The test is a necessary part of the military circenses (sans the panem, pity the poor long-suffering Korean people) to usher in the Kim Jong-un fronted era with a celebartory big bang and fireworks, DPRK-style.
This according to Reuters:

North Korea, pressing ahead with a rocket launch in defiance of a UN resolution, is also preparing a third nuclear weapons test, South Korean news reports said on Sunday…

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency quoted an unidentified intelligence source as saying North Korea was “clandestinely preparing a nuclear test” at the same location as the first two.

The source added that workers in the destitute North had been seen in commercial satellite images digging a tunnel in the northeastern town of Punggye-ri, Kilju County, in addition to existing mines believed to have been used for tests in 2006 and 2009.

Here is an interesting take on the whole thing by none other than Henry Kissinger: North Korea’s Nuclear Challenge on ihavenet.com.

UK-Japan Defense Deal Coming Soon!

This story was prompted by leaks in the UK  so I was drafted in to make comments in the middle of last week.

Working the phones and contacts reminded me of when I was a foreign correspondent stationed in Tokyo back more than a decade ago!

Michishita Sensei is much more interested in my research work on orbital debris ADR, and SSA but that’s for later….

Here is the second part:

Japan Naval Buildup Continues vs China

Here is a recent story I filed for Defense News on part of Japan’s response to Chinese PLAN expansionism. We dealt with BMD, which is really forward defense against China and conceivably Russia rather than the straw man that is DPRK, a few weeks ago.

The main thing is that Japan doesn’t need a plan -for now- but to avoid abandonment, Japan must continue to push for further integration and joint exercises, as Admiral Yohji Koda   (see China PLAN Stirring more than Choppy Waters) told me last year.

Update: Some Interesting Media on Upcoming DPRK launch

Amongst the dross and hysteria about Japan “preparing to intercept” his month’s North Korean “missile” with PAC-3 or SM-3 the WSJ has just printed something sensible about the upcoming Eunha-3 launch of the DPRK’s third satellite, Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3.

(I particularly like the picture used in this AP picture, with the use of the green camouflage on the PAC-3 batteries to help protect them from the evil commies, while the batteries are surrounded the cherry blossom and slate gray blocks of flats they can’t protect against a “missile” that’s not going to come within a 1,000 kilometers of them.)

This follows another excellent piece in Businessweek, NKorea launch an intel opportunity for US, allies, which features the excellent Narushige Michishita and Hiroyasu Akutsu.

In Japan Readies Response to Pyongyang’s Launch the WSJ finally places at least one correct caveat in the story that anybody who has any basic understanding of the launch and Japan’s BMD technology would know instantly:

This time, North Korea says it will launch in a southerly, not an easterly, direction. That means the rocket is expected to pass high over Okinawan islands in the East China Sea, an area that has become a security concern for Tokyo amid disputes with China and worries over that country’s increasing military profile.

At last WSJ and BW are getting closer to the real story… Japan and the U.S. have known about this launch since December and the story is win-win-win for everyone, the DPRK, the media, who are getting a good story despite the fact that most hacks have just become (willing or unwitting) cyphers, politicians and Japan’s BMD spending. DPRK is good for one thing- stimulating Japan’s defense!

Remember that SM-3 is designed to shoot down an IRBM in orbit  (at the moment one might be about it, on a good day) in space and so far it has been achieving success in carefully coordinated and choreographed tests. PAC-3 is designed as a terminal phase descent against a high speed missile, not against tumbling slow moving small bit of rocket debris. In the billions-or trillions-to-one chances that a rocket casing or  chunk of something manages somehow to get on a trajectory to hit a tiny island such as Miyakojima, neither SM-3 or PAC-3 are going to be much use. But don’t let reality impinge on a  good story!

It’s a pity the WSJ befuddles the implications of their statement that the rocket is going to come nowhere near Japan, that somehow the Eunha-3, the DPRK by suggesting the  emerging naval arms race between China and Japan over the East China Sea has anything to do with our little North Korean rocket. That’s also besides the point that if something does go suddenly seriously wrong with the rocket, Japan’s two-tiered BMD system probably can’t do anything with it anyway.

But without the implication of threat and controversy, there isn’t much of a story  saying something like, erm, “Japan prepares training exercise for some Aegis cruisers to track North Korean satellite launch.”

The article then contains an interesting interpretation of facts and motives as told by Defense Minister Tanaka:

On Friday, Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka told reporters that nothing unusual should be read into the southern deployment. “It’s not related to a strengthening of our defense structure,” he said. “It’s just in case.”

That’s a new one!

PAC-3 has long been planned as part of the MOD’s latest Mid-Term Defense Plan precisely to send a message to China, as MOD told me March 13, well before before the “story broke” about the upcoming launch, that PAC-3 was  deployed to Okinawa anyway.

Then the article quotes a local analyst who has a take on things that is something nearer what all this is all about:

“The Ministry of Defense and the Self-Defense Forces must be thankful to Pyongyang for providing a chance for training under such real circumstances,” said Tetsuo Maeda, a Japanese military analyst.

Since Japan and the U.S. have known about the launch  since December, the “news” by the media which in the case of knowledgeable Japanese journalists amounts to a clear case of deliberately whipping up the froth to make it a good story, and for “foreign correspondents” based here to roll out a bunch of nonsense about the whole thing.

As I said in my original article, this latest Taepondon Trigger is an excellent chance for Japan to get training in and ramp the threat up so as to loosen up budget for more BMD after 2015.

In fact both North Korea and Japan and the U.S. have a lot to gain by the launch. As I originally wrote a month or so ago, succeed or fail, the launch will be a valuable propaganda victory for the military and political junta backing Kim Jong-il , and it will be both an intelligence bonanza and is already proving a valuable fear creation scenario to help Japan strengthen its defenses.

Japan Begins Building Technology Demonstrator Fighter Shinshin

As one commentator on my story said, by the time the the F-35 is perfected and the Shinshin is flying, the U.S. will probably let Japan have the F-22 anyway, as it will be old hat by then. That’s a very cynical point of view as the F-35’s troubles continue, mainly in terms of cost growth.

 However, Japan is being sensible, at least on the surface of it. Whether or not TRDI and MHI can deliver on the Shinshin is an issue that is going to emerge over the next three or four years. The TRDI is often criticized for being too research orientated and not product driven. Questions about the Shinshin include just how much stealth technology will the DOD let Japan have. After the FSX debacle, Japan’s strategy has been to make sure it keeps at the edge of certain elemental technologies and subsystems while not remaining too far behind on systems technology just in case. So what sort of hedge is Shinshin? An interesting question. And what sort of leverage will it give Japan if any against the F-35?

Anyway, here is the brief story I put in for Defense News.