I was both a little excited and very disappointed that the NHK decided to publicize something that’s been public knowledge for around a decade – that Japan looked into and decided not to produce nuclear weapons in the late 1960s.
The 日本の核に関する基礎的研究 conducted by the 内閣調査室 (Cabinet Information Research Office) for the then PM Eisaku Sato by Profs. Hidetake Kakibana, Michio Royama, Yonosuke Nagai and Hisashi Maeda distributed some 200 copies with the highest secrecy concluding that it was probably not in Japan’s best interests to develop an independent nuclear deterrent.
What was bold about NHK was to go an interview a protagonist who had decided to make a “confession” just about a month before he passed away. A very enlightened move by NHK. It is easy to portray Japan as “hiding something” when the mass-media tropes and memes are so misleading. The fact is that it’s well-known that Japan has the means, but has decided not to produce nuclear weapons, since the late 1960s, and the same goes with ICBMS.
The fact is that Japan’s ability to produce nuclear weapons quickly is not controversial amongst the analyst community. In addition to a pluthermal/ fast breeder reactor program that will accelerate Japan’s production of supergrade plutonium (to an estimated 700 kg over ten years at Monju alone) via technology imported (according to Greenpeace) from the U.S. Savannah River Plant and Oak Ridge labs, Japan is known to have around plutonium available to construct warhead in about 9 months of a political decision for Japan to arm itself.
In fact, the effect of China’s rapid progress on Japan cannot be understated in the post-war history of Japan developing its recessed deterrent strategy, of which Japan’s “peaceful purposes only” nuclear program and (until 1998) “peaceful purposes only” space program have been conjoined.
While Japan did not actually develop a nuclear deterrent, it did decide to develop and maintain all the technologies it needed to make sure that in an emergency Japan could rapidly go nuclear.
In Defense of Japan is a critical part of this story, because exactly the same strategy was employed for space development, to make sure Japan has a full spectrum of military space technologies ready to deliver weapons if or when they are made.
The exciting thing is that NHK is prepared to break one of the official mass media taboos, that Japan both can produce, and has strongly considered producing such weapons. But I feel it’s time for a more honest media discussion on the role of Japan’s space development program.
I’d like to think in some way that In Defense of Japan is also playing its part in lifting the almost willful non-discussion in the Japanese media, and the international media, of the meaning of Japan’s space program and the way policy is reported to the public.
As I predicted on this blog back on March 16 (Taepodon Trigger #3: DPRK to attempt 3rd Satellite Shot- Third Time Lucky?) and March 18 (Taepodon Trigger #3: Update) the DPRK is likely to follow up its satellite launch with a third nuclear test.
Japan Space Policy 