Amid news that Japan is reinforcing its guard of its southern Island chain on top of the countermeasures already announced in the quinquennial 防衛計画の大綱 (National Defense Program Guidelines) of last Dec. 17, (remember in 2005 Japan actually decided to say what everyone knows, and this last time it basically said “hands off”!) NIDS recently came out with an excellent, authoritative report on China’s intentions, in particular in dealing with the increasingly provocative actions by PLAN. The report was remarkable in not only its tone and quality, but also in the way it simply denuded the flash-bang, low-level noise-  of noisy neighbors – with a calm and intelligent response.

Imagine a rather overwrought adolescent bully who is still unsure of himself being told to pipe down by the adult next door.

Saying that, appearances can be deceptive. Take a look at the massive strengthening of the fleet has been hidden by allotting the tonnage to the Coast Guard, which is for all intents as Dick Samuels says, a fourth branch of armed services now (see “New Fighting Power!” Japan’s Growing Maritime Capabilities and East Asian Security,  International Security, Vol 32, No.3, (Winter 2007/8) pp. 84-112). The JCG has:

• Patrol Vessels: 121
• Patrol craft: 234
• Special guard and rescue craft: 63

Aircraft

The JCG operates 73 aircraft, these include:

• Fixed Wing 27
• Helicopters 46

…in other words, in 2005, the JSG’s muscle was more than 60% of the total tonnage of China’s surface fleet, including nearly 100 x 500 ton armed patrol ships  including 50 x 1,000-ton class patrol ships. The JCG’s most powerful ships run at 95 meters long include 40 mm cannon and are about two-thirds the size of the MSDF’s Hatsuyuki-class destroyers.

Now Japan is talking in terms of carrier wars. But Japan? Weak, second-string aging incompetent crisis ridden sclerotic Japan involved in carrier wars?

The 30 PLs with helicopter pads and the 69 large PLs without helicopter pads include the Shikishima PLH, which displaces 6,500 tons, is 150 meters long, and has a range of 37,00 kilometers. Rapidly refitting these up to becoming major engines of defense and or destruction has probably never occurred to anyone anywhere. Right.

The point of the report by NIDS is that the bully is maturing and learning how to be more sneaky and less clumsy, and his smaller neighbors are going to need to club together to contain him. Here is my official take on the report: